eMarketer Forecast: Google’s US display advertising business anticipated to surpass Facebook’s by 2013

According to eMarketer’s new forecast, Google’s display business is showing more growth than anticipated and may overtake Facebook as the top display advertising seller by 2013. Facebook, the online social networking giant, overtook Yahoo! last year to become the leading display advertising seller in the US.

Net Revenues (Display advertising)

Google recorded a net display advertising revenues of $1.71 billion in 2011 while Facebook registered a slightly higher $1.73 billion in the same year. In 2012, the research company forecasts the US display revenue growth of Google and Facebook to be nearly at the same level, about 48% year-over-year (y/y). In short, Facebook is expected to earn $2.58 billion while Google may earn revenues of $2.54 billion.

At this growth rate, Google is set to surpass the social network provider Facebook by 2013. eMarketer estimates US display ad revenues at Google to grow by 45.3% y/y to $3.68 billion while Facebook would grow by 27.6% y/y to $3.29 billion.

US display advertising market

The overall market registered a growth of 25.2% y/y to $12.4 billion in 2011. It includes spending on sponsorships, online video, rich media and banner ads. Facebook’s share was 14%, up from11.5% in 2010, while Google’s share was 13.8% in 2011.

Forecast for 2013 & 2014

In the next year, Facebook’s share is expected to grow to 16.8% while Google’s share may rise to reach 16.5%. According to eMarketer, this figure would rise to $15.39 billion in 2012. Both the companies together are expected to generate display ad spending share of 33.3% of the total US market in 2012. This figure is expected to rise to 38.8% in 2014.

In the meantime, Yahoo! share of the US display market may slide to 9.1% in 2012, a major decline from 18.4% in 2008. Microsoft’s share is also likely to decline from 4.5% in 2011 to 4.4% this year. AOL’s share may go down to 4% this year, from 4.3% in 2011.

Source: eMarketer Press release

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